China: the engine of global economic growth has restarted
China was the first economy at the global level to be hit by the Coronavirus pandemic, and the first to introduce unprecedented restrictive measures to contain the health emergency. The economic shock caused directly by the total shutdown of the economy resulted plunging GDP growth in 1Q 2020, by -6.8%, prompting premier Li Kequiang not to set an annual growth target at the latest Communist Party Congress in May. Since the summer, however, China has posted strong data, outlining a recovery of economic growth, whereas in the rest of the world the monthly trend of the economies has been worsening slightly, in correspondence with the materialisation of the feared second wave of the Coronavirus in Europe in October.
The corporate earning report season – 3Q
The corporate earnings reporting season for 3Q begins this week in the United States and in Europe, and should signal that profits have started to recover. Analysts expect an appreciable recovery of quarterly earnings, that would in any case continue to contract sharply in annual terms (-21% in the US and around -40% in Europe). Forecasts have recently been revised upwards, but not to the point of fully pricing in the reacceleration outlined by macro data, therefore they could prove to be still conservative.
The recent surge in Covid-19 infection cases is scary, although for the time being high frequency data do not outline a derailing of the recovery, but only a slowdown, after the sharp rebound observed in 3Q.
Previews financial reports
A marked increase in the wealth of households: in 2Q 2020 beat pre-coronavirus peak levels
2Q 2020 corporate earnings reporting season kicks off
Macroeconomic data: 1Q 2020
The 1Q reporting season
The US fiscal policy
The Fed and unlimited credit, a necessary condition for the economy to recover
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