Main themes in the next few days
From 25 to 31 January
FED MEETING, 4Q GDP in USA, GERMANY and FRANCE
On Wednesday, the periodical FOCM meeting will be held in the United States. No changes to monetary policy are
expected, following the adjustment of guidance on QE implemented in December. As recently pointed out by several FOMC participants, the Fed thinks it is early days as yet to open a debate on the tapering of asset purchases.
On Thursday, the advance reading of US GDP growth in 4Q 2020 will be released, and despite the rise in new Covid infections, is forecast at a solid +4.2% q/q annualised (from +33.4% in 3Q).
German and French GDP Growth
On Friday, advance data on 4Q 2020 GDP growth in Germany and France will be released. Expectations are for a stagnation of German GDP and for a contraction of French growth (-4% q/q), as a result of the introduction of new virus containment measures. Data on GDP growth in Italy and the Eurozone will only be available next week.
Corporate Earnings Reports
The 4Q 2020 earnings reporting season is reaching its climax in the US. This week, results will be disclosed by around 25% of S&P 500 companies. Consensus forecasts point to lower earnings by around 9% y/y.
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